Selection of Rail System Projects with Analytic Hierarchy Process and Goal Programming

Abstract

Keywords: Multicriteria decision making; project selection; rail systems; transportation planning.

1. Introduction

In Istanbul, the existing rail systems are inadequate to meet the transportation demands, the population continues to increase and settlements are expanding. Due to such reasons, the time spent in traffic is increasing. At the same time, this affects the livability of the city. The request of passengers is to realize their daily journeys safely and comfortably in a short time. Highway traffic is increasing due to the fact that most of the journeys are made by road and the number of private cars is increasing. A lot of investment is made public transportation to reduce this density. Most of these investments are investments in rail systems, which are safe, comfortable and fast transport systems. With its short, medium and long-term plans, Istanbul is making and planning big investments in rail systems. It is aimed to reach to many points of the city by rail system such

Corresponding Author/Sorumlu Yazar: e-mail/e-ileti: hamurcu.mustafa.55@gmail.com, tel: (318) 357 42 42 / 1045

M. Hamurcu, H.M. Alağaş, T. Eren / Sigma J Eng & Nat Sci 8 (4), 291-302, 2017

as metro, tramway and monorail lines. In this context, there are many activities that are under construction, in the tender stage and in the projecting stage. To be able to respond to increasing passenger demands with the existing road network and public transportation systems in Istanbul, rail systems are planned on the whole city as efficient, fast, comfortable and safe means of transportation. In this study, the project selection for the planned railway system projects in the following years is discussed with three different budget scenarios. Types of rail transport systems are weighted by analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which is a multi-criteria decision-making method and the most suitable projects to be constructed are selected with the goal programming method. In the second section of the study, various types of rail systems are mentioned. AHP and goal programming methods are described in the third and fourth sections. In the fifth section, project selection problem is given. In the sixth section, the application and its results are mentioned. In the last section, the results and future works are given.

2. Urban RAIL Systems

In urban areas, suburban, tramway, light rail system, subway and monorail systems are preferred for public transport due to their high capacity, reliability and speed. The suburban trains are heavy rail systems that connect long distances with high capacity. Tramway is vehicle with the lowest capacity among rail systems. Metro is a type of urban transportation that provides public transport from underground with high capacity, reliability and speed. The monorail is an eco-friendly and recently popular means of public transport that travels along its own unique route, ascending from the ground atop the columns to the vehicle traffic. There are different monorail types as overlay type, suspension type and console type. The literature on rail systems and urban transport has been given under the section of project selection.

3. Analytic Hierarchy Process

Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods are approaches that help to determine the most appropriate option among the alternatives in accordance with the determined criteria and targets. In this structure, criteria which are generally independent and expressed in different forms are taken into consideration. MCDA method of AHP and analytic network process (ANP), TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), ELECTRE (Elimination meat Choix Traduisant la Reality), PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation) are frequently used. The general steps of the AHP method that is based on pairwise comparisons are as follows [1]; Step 1: Identifying the problem and establishing a hierarchy of goals, criteria and alternatives. Step 2: Pairwise comparisons between criteria and between alternatives according to each criterion Step 3: Normalize the generated comparison matrices and find the eigenvectors Step 4: Determine the weights of criteria and calculate a consistency value to determine the suitability of the decisions Step 5: Matrix multiplication of the importance ratings of the alternatives found for each criterion with the weights of the criterions and find the significance levels of the alternatives. Step 6: Order or selection of alternatives according to their importance

4. GOAL Programming

Problems encountered in daily life often have to be considered multiple objectives. Sometimes we want to accomplish many objectives simultaneously in the decision and sometimes we want to minimization of negative factors. In both cases, we use multi objective mathematical

Selection of Rail System Projects with Analytic Hierarchy … / Sigma J Eng & Nat Sci 8 (4), 291-302, 2017

models to achieve g oals in the same direction or conflict situations simultaneously in the realization of our purposes. Goal programming is also a kind of mathematical model and it tries to minimize the deviations from the goals by turning all of the goals into constraints [2]. Goal programming formulation as below; Objective Function: ,

Pi: priority, wi: weight, di+: Positive deviation di-: Negative deviation, aij: parameters ve xj: decision variables. Goal programming first addressed by Charnes and Cooper [3]. It is used in many areas such as transportation problems [4-7], production planning [8], resource planning in hospitals [9], project selection and management [10-11], marketing [12], menu planning problems [13], investment planning [14], job evaluation [15], media [16].

5. Project Selection Problem

Project selection problem is defined as the selection, sorting or weighting of one or several of alternative projects and it is the evaluation period of the most useful, best or least costly project. In selecting a project, we have more than one goal to make the right decisions. Such as, providing the highest benefit, selecting projects that are the shortest time or least costly. In the selection of the project, there is a need for mathematical tools to integrate many objectives into a single objective. At this point, multicriteria decision making methods and goal programming method that provides multi-objective mathematical modeling are at the forefront as analytical methods. In this study, AHP which is a multi-criteria decision-making method, and goal programming as a mathematical model are also used. There are many project selection studies in which these two methods are integrated. AHP and goal programming methods are used together in different areas such as selection of information system projects [17], resource use [18], quality control systems [19], supplier selection [20] and transportation [6], [11]. In urban transport, many studies have been done on project selection. Some of those; Kosijer et al. [21] in the selection of the best railway route, Mohajeri and Amin [22], in the selection of the railway station station, Gerçek et al. [23] assessed the best rail access network, Banai [24], light rail access corridor and alternative routes, Macura et al. [25], order of railway infrastructure investment projects, Abastante and Lami [26] evaluation of transportation infrastructure strategies, Hamurcu and Eren [27-29] selection of monorail projects in Ankara. Taş et al. [30] and Hamurcu et al. [7] selection of monorail projects for urban transport in Ankara, Hamurcu and Eren [31] selection of urban transportation type, Hamurcu and Eren [32] project selection sustainable urban transportation, Kalamaras et al. [33], Piantanakulchai and Saengkhao [34], Piantanakulchai [35], Effat and Hassan [36], the highway route; Zhongzhen and Hayashi [37], rail system route; Yao [38], Farkas [39], Brunner et al. [40], public transportation route; Kim et al. [41] highway network planning.

6. Application

Istanbul is one of the metropolitan cities with its high population, expanding urban borders and ever-increasing economic development. Many problems arise in the city due to the increase in population and in-city journeys. At the beginning of these problems is the urban transportation

M. Hamurcu, H.M. Alağaş, T. Eren / Sigma J Eng & Nat Sci 8 (4), 291-302, 2017

problem. Variability in passenger density and population growth in the coming years will require continual addressing of these problems. District-based distributions of the journey are shown in Figure 1 [42].

Figure 1. Population by Provinces (1), Special Journey Production Areas by Provinces (2) and District - based (3) Distribution of Journeys, in Istanbul in 2023 Istanbul, which is the locomotive for other cities along with Ankara in the transportation area in our country, competes with and sometimes pioneers the metropolitan cities of the world with its huge projects. Managers who have signed many projects in urban transportation as well as many other areas, are planning to establish a rail system network throughout the city with various types and features of railed system projects. The railed systems in Istanbul on the basis of periods are shown in Figure 2 [42]. The goal of the Metropolitan city is to reach a rail system network about 1000 km of rail systems after 2019 with new projects.

M16 M17 M18 M19 M20 M21

According to the $ 15 billion budget scenario, 12 metro projects, 1 tramway project, 1 monorail project and 2 light railway system projects are selected. According to the $ 10 billion budget scenario, 9 metro projects, 1 tramway project and 1 light rail system project are selected. Finally, according to a budget scenario of $ 8 billion, 7 metro projects and 1 light rail system project are selected.

Share and Cite